Brokers threatened by run on shadow bank system

Regulators eye $10 trillion market that boomed outside traditional banking…

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — A network of lenders, brokers and opaque financing vehicles outside traditional banking that ballooned during the bull market now is under siege as regulators threaten a crackdown on the so-called shadow banking system.

Big brokerage firms like Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs Group, Inc (GS: 186.93, +4.16, +2.3%) ,Lehman Brothers Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEH:24.46-0.32-1.29%) Merrill Lynch (MER: 37.69, +0.14, +0.4%) which some say are the biggest players in this non-bank financial network, may have the most to lose from stricter regulation. The shadow banking system grew rapidly during the past decade, accumulating more than $10 trillion in assets by early 2007. That made it roughly the same size as the traditional banking system, according to the Federal Reserve.

While this system became a huge and vital source of money to fuel the U.S. economy, the subprime mortgage crisis and ensuing credit crunch exposed a major flaw. Unlike regulated banks, which can borrow directly from the government and have federally insured customer deposits, the shadow system didn’t have reliable access to short-term borrowing during times of stress.

Unless radical changes are made to bring this shadow network under an updated regulatory umbrella, the current crisis may be just a gust compared to the storm that would follow a collapse of the global financial system, experts warn.

Such vulnerability helped transform what may have been an uncomfortable correction in credit markets into the worst global credit crunch in more than a decade as monetary policymakers and regulators struggled to contain the damage.

Unless radical changes are made to bring this shadow network under an updated regulatory umbrella, the current crisis may be just a gust compared to the storm that would follow a collapse of the global financial system, experts warn.

“The shadow banking system model as practiced in recent years has been discredited,” Ramin Toloui, executive vice president at bond investment giant Pimco, said.

Toloui expects greater regulation of big brokerage firms which may face stricter capital requirements and requirements to hold more liquid, or easily sellable, assets.

‘Clarion call’

“The bright new financial system — for all its talented participants, for all its rich rewards — has failed the test of the market place,” Paul Volcker, former chairman of the Federal Reserve, said during a speech in April. “It all adds up to a clarion call for an effective response.”

Two months later, Timothy Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and others have begun to answer that call.

“The structure of the financial system changed fundamentally during the boom, with dramatic growth in the share of assets outside the traditional banking system,” he warned in a speech last week. That “made the crisis more difficult to manage.”

On Thursday, Treasury Secretary and former Goldman Chief Executive Henry Paulson said the Fed should be given the authority to collect information from large complex financial institutions and intervene if necessary to stabilize future crises. Regulators should also have a clear way of taking over and closing a failed brokerage firm, he added. See full story.

Banking bedrock

The bedrock of traditional banking is borrowing money over the short term from customers who deposit savings in accounts and then lending it back out as mortgages and other higher-yielding loans over longer periods.

The owners of banks are required by regulators to invest some of their own money and reinvest some of the profit to keep an extra level of money in reserve in case the business suffers losses on some of its loans. That ensures that there’s still enough money to repay all depositors after such losses.

In recent decades, lots of new businesses and investment vehicles have evolved that do the same thing, but outside the purview of traditional banking regulation.

Instead of getting money from depositors, these financial intermediaries often borrow by selling commercial paper, which is a type of short-term loan that has to be re-financed over and over again. And rather than offering home loans, these entities buy mortgage-backed securities and other more complex securities.

A $10 trillion shadow

By early 2007, conduits, structured investment vehicles and similar entities that borrowed in the commercial paper market and bought longer-term asset-backed securities, held roughly $2.2 trillion in assets, according to the Fed’s Geithner.

Another $2.5 trillion in assets were financed overnight in the so-called repo market, Geithner said.

Geithner also highlighted big brokerage firms, saying that their combined balance sheets held $4 trillion in assets in early 2007.

Hedge funds held another $1.8 trillion, bringing the total value of asset in the “non-bank” financial system to $10.5 trillion, he added.

That dwarfed the total assets of the five largest banks in the U.S., which held just over $6 trillion at the time, Geithner noted. The traditional banking system as a whole held about $10 trillion, he said.

“These things act like banks, but they’re not.”

— James Hamilton,

Economics professor

While acting like banks, these shadow banking entities weren’t subject to the same supervision, so they didn’t hold as much capital to cushion against potential losses. When subprime mortgage losses started last year, their sources of short-term financing dried up.

“These things act like banks, but they’re not,” James Hamilton, professor of economics at the University of California, San Diego, said. “The fundamental inadequacy of their own capital caused these problems.”

Big brokers targeted

Geithner said the most fundamental reform that’s needed is to regulate big brokerage firms and global banks under a unified system with stronger supervision and “appropriate” requirements for capital and liquidity.

Financial institutions should be persuaded to keep strong capital cushions and more liquid assets during periods of calm in the market, he explained, noting that’s the best way to limit the damage during a crisis.

At a minimum, major investment banks and brokerage firms should adhere to similar rules on capital, liquidity and risk management as commercial banks, Sheila Bair, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., said on Wednesday.

“It makes sense to extend some form of greater prudential regulation to investment banks,” she said.

Separation dwindled

After the stock market crash of 1929, the U.S. Congress passed laws that separated commercial banks from investment banks.

The Fed, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and state regulators oversaw commercial banks, which took in customer deposits and lent that money out. The Securities and Exchange Commission regulated brokerage firms, which underwrote offerings of stocks and corporate bonds.

This separation dwindled during the 1980s and 1990s as commercial banks tried to push into investment banking — following their large corporate clients which were selling more bonds, rather than borrowing directly from banks…

Michigan Economic Recovery: College Grad Retention
[Throw grad cap in the air]
Where do we go from here? Well to some the outlook in Michigan is as bleak as a winter sky. However, the key to Michigan’s economic recovery from globalization’s effect on the manufacturing industry is college graduate retention. As a college student majoring in Economics and a Michigan resident, I anticipate our continued residence is needed and that in doing so it will benefit our self interests. In order to see this we must look at Michigan’s current situation, the affect that graduates have on economies at the state and local level, and finally how it will benefit us as future graduates to aid in our recovery.

Let us start with what we know. According to the Michigan Economic Development Corp. 2001 Michigan ranked #1 and #2 in US car and light truck production respectively. While we still hold that title, the “Big 3″ has lost a foothold on some of the market share. Contrary to popular belief that our manufacturing is being “shipped overseas”, our actual competition is right her in the good ol’ US of A. Foreign car manufacturers have placed large plants throughout the South due to the absence of unionization and our resistance to competition within the state.
US Dept of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis
Michigan 2000- 2006
employment:
2000- 5,629,498
2006- 5,542,222
Loss of 87,276 jobs or -1.6%
US 2000-2006
Full and Part time employment:
2000-166,758,800
2006-178,332,900
Gain of 11,574,100 or 6.9%
Only state to go down year by year from 2002-2005 in percentage of contribution to US GDP and in 2006 it recorded the only loss out of all 50 states
However, Michigan is not a complete economic quagmire because we produce some of the best college graduates in the nation. According to the US World News and report University of Michigan ranked 11th in top business graduate entrepreneurship programs. This means that there are very bright students graduating right here in this state that can breath fresh life into a stagnate economy by creating innovative start-ups. U of M also broke the top ten in Medical Schools. Michigan has two fantastic Universities in Michigan and Michigan State. A stat on the Michigan Economic Development Corporation website ranks us 4th in the nation with 6,500 engineering degrees awarded annually. This state is an educational industry in itself. Until recently, we maintained a balanced ratio of college graduates entering and exiting the state. Kenneth Darga, a Demographer for the state, says that the media has prescribed 5 fallacies about Michigan that the world has swallowed. He includes the perception of a “Brain Drain” as one of those five. Mr. Darga challenges the idea, but gives credence to a recent trend in 2005 and 2006 that has tipped the ratio towards a substantial exiting of our graduates.
Michigan is currently working on several stimulus incentives to promote economic growth. They are looking to diversify into alternative energy, life sciences, homeland security and defense, and advanced manufacturing. The state is investing $2 billion dollars into this 21st Century Jobs Fund Initiative with the hope of drawing in corporations and start-up business. Other plans include tax incentives, development in virtually “tax free” Renaissance Zones and Renewable Energy Zones. While these are great incentives for future business, there is not a specific plan in place to prevent an Exodus of the skilled labor force that is needed to maintain them…
Transition: In a moment I’ll tackle that issue, but for now I’d like to switch gears and address the affect that graduates have on economies at the state and local levels.
A study done by Michigan Future, Inc., an Ann Arbor think-tank collected data from states and the 53 metropolitan areas with population of one million or more plus Lansing and Madison. They found that almost all states with the highest per capita income:
• Are over concentrated compared to the nation in the proportion of wages coming from knowledge-based industries (those where more than 30% of workers have a four-year degree or more)
• Have a high proportion of adults with a four-year degree or more
• Have a big metropolitan area with even higher per capita income than the state
• And, in that big metropolitan area, the largest city has a high proportion of its residents with a four-year degree or more.
-Rich Karlgaard, publisher of Forbes magazine, summed it up best:
Best place to make a future Forbes 400 fortune? Start with this proposition: The most valuable natural resource in the 21st century is brains. Smart people tend to be mobile. Watch where they go! Because where they go, robust economic activity will follow.
Transition:
The transfer from a commodity economy to a knowledge-driven economy has a simple fix. It is one that requires our involvement.
The solution is merely (something my mom used to tell me…) STAY PUT! Michigan needs you, the community needs, we need you. Without the retention of our college graduates the economic stabilizers set in motion will crumble like rotted wood. However, we can start small by create a network that will weave a safety net of creative, educated, and motivated individuals. Who knows we could end up a large consulting firm that breaks down into specialized industries and takes on R&D, Project Management, or any other outsourced project. We can develope these knowledge based fields of information; finance and insurance; management of companies; professional and technical services; health care and education. The possibilities are endless once people combine their strengths. There is plenty of potential growth for Michigan because we are on the bottom looking up! We have endless intellectual resources at our fingertips at the ever improving universities. Our networks will continue to grow as we continue in our education. It is in our self interest to develop them here. This will attract the large corporation to us instead of shelling out precious tax dollars. We have a comparative advantage over any graduates coming from warmer climates. Businesses will have to pay them more in order to get them to move here. It is also in our best interest to stay here and help develop the communities we grew up in. There is nothing better than to see your town or city sprout economic wings and fly. Our careers will flourish after starting from ground zero and we will become increasingly marketable. So consider the state of Michigan as your home.
I want to leave you with this thought; that we as graduates can come together and help Michigan recover. It’s been shown that when educated minds combine they will drive the future of their surroundings into the sunset of prosperity. We can fulfill our self-interest through the interests of others. I will be the first to tell you my move from Grand Rapids to Atlanta was one of the most enlightening periods of my life. Experiences cannot be supplemented with a dream. If you must leave, travel, and stay where like, but remember where your home is…. AND Y’ALL COME BACK NOW YA HEAR?

Citations

Braun Kenneth M. &LaFaive Michael D., Mackinac Center, “Automotive Production Expands - Elsewhere”, http://www.mackinac.org/article.aspx?ID=9228

Darga Kenneth, State Demographer, Michigan Revenue Estimating Conference, January 11, 2008,”Fallacies that Misinform Our Thinking About Michigan’s Population and Economy”

Glazer Lou &Grimes Don, Michigan’s Transition to a Knowledge-Based Economy: First Annual Progress Report, Report from: Michigan Future, Inc., February 2008 http://www.michiganfuture.org/Reports/ProgressReport2008Final.pdf
Michigan Economic Development Corporation, The Michigan Advantage:Excellent Education, Copyright © 2008
http://www.michiganadvantage.org/MIAdvantage/Excellent-Education/Default.aspx
University of Michigan Medical School ranks among top 10 in country in U.S. News & World Report, March 30, 2007, http://www.med.umich.edu/opm/newspage/2007/usnewsmedschool. htm
US Dept of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis, Interactive Charts and Graphs, http://www.bea.gov/regional/index.htm,

Dave Mahorney
SPCH130
Professor Mac Fadden

Adam Smith

Ladies and gentlemen, I am glad you all could join me in celebrating the life Adam Smith’s through his literature. I have been recently fascinated by Adam Smith and his clichés that have somewhat haunted me as of late. With phrases such as “self interests”, “free trade”, and the “invisible hand” ringing in my ears like the Liberty Bell1, pre-fracture3, I set my course to follow in the footsteps of Adam Smith and discover what character traits define him. Much to my dismay, I came to find that little is know of Adam Smith’s personal side. His private life is a shroud of mystery2 due to the destruction of his personal memoirs. However, I was not about to let Fate4 deal me a losing hand. So I took up the task of combing Smith’s public works for traces of his traits5. Adam Smith’s literature, specifically “The Theory of Moral Sentiments” and “An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations,” illuminates his analytical insight and perceptive observations. I have taken the liberty of assessing both writings to illustrate how these traits personify his character and lead to his accreditation as the “Father of Economics.”
As a whole, most philosophers are fairly perceptive and Adam Smith’s intricate insight is immortalized in his writings6. “The Theory of Moral Sentiments” is a blueprint2 of human reasoning and reaction. It is in this book that he establishes human morality, an important deriver of decision making3, as natural born senses of conscience and sympathy. Smith’s analysis is a brilliant revelation of how human interaction is driven by these natural senses and ensures that human beings can and do live together in orderly and beneficial social organizations. The complex and abundant social analogies showcase Adam Smith’s ability to foresee effects based on his elaborate analysis. This writing earned him notoriety and a job tutoring the stepson of Charles Townshend, the young Duke of Buccleuch (bu’ kloo). He took his new student on a tour of Europe all the while laying the foundation for his next literary work.
In his travels, mainly in France, Adam Smith met many prominent minds upon which he gleaned information to apply to his theories. Resulting in his most influential and renowned text titled “An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations.” Considered by scholars to be his masterpiece, Smith illustrates not only his trait of intricate insight but also of keen observation. The volumes encompass the foundations of free market economics which are division of labor, pursuit of self interest, and freedom of trade. A free market society is the basis of capitalism. An industry with divisions of labor is the automobile; produced by many individual jobs systematically combined to an efficient output. Self interests are decisions made by individuals based on their wants and needs. Freedom of trade is market prices being driven by supply and demand, free of tariffs, free of regulation, free of price wages and free of subsidies7. Adam Smith concludes that the “invisible hand” of the market maintains balance and order when the foundations of a free market are observed. These works published in 1776, and according to Roy Smith’s book, was said to have greatly impacted the decision making of our founding fathers as they constructed the basis for our unprecedented system of government. Smith’s ability to compose his observations of national and international commerce contributed to his designation as “The Father of Economics.”
When I look at Adam Smith’s works, I observe a processing of thorough logic and conclude that his insightfulness and observation were vital characteristics that lead to his accreditation. I can only hope to develop my own character in such a fashion that one day I too may be the father of… something.

1) Simile 2) Metaphor 3) Interruption 4) Metonymy 5) Paronomasia
6) Assonance 7) Anaphora
Work Cited

Smith, Adam “The Theory of the Moral Sentiments” EDINBURGH: 1759

Smith, Roy C., “Adam Smith and the Origins of American Enterprise”, Macmillan: 2002

Wikipedia, “Adam Smith” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Smith

Wikipedia, “The Wealth of Nations” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wealth_of_Nations

Informative Speech
Building Blocks of Financial Stability

Intro:
My name is David Bruce Mahorney III and I …. I am fiscally irresponsible… That is… until I start taking control of my money instead of it controlling me… behind me, I have completed what you will come to know as one of the first steps in becoming financially stable. I can relate to those of you with these new financial responsibilities; I can remember my first car, first apartment, the first struggle between school and bills and the increasing misc. fund. There are others here, like myself that still struggle with these responsibilities even after being introduced to the “real world”. So… I’m here to examine how every citizen can promote fiscally responsible personal and business decisions by adhering to five fundamental principles. We’ll look at how to create a balanced budget, how to be consistent, how to save, how to asses investments, and finally the most important to help others help others.

First order of business is to create a balanced budget… How do we do that??? Don’t spend more than we make! Sounds simple right? It can be!
We start by creating a monthly budget…
List all our income sources: jobs 1 through however many.
List all our monthly expenses: From credit cards to Christmas gifts and even that Us weekly that found its way into your cart…PUT IT DOWN… on the budget.
Finally we take a look at where we’re at and analyze where we can afford to make cuts. If there is extra money, we can look at giving to a charitable cause, savings or paying down debt. This chart will give us a goal to shoot for when allocating our income.

Transition: Once we have established how much money we have available and where it is going, we are on our way to

The next fundamental principle which is perhaps the most challenging. Consistency is a repeated measurement of action. We need to create consistency in order to be consistent in our financial duties.
A starting point is to remove all negative reactions to moving forward and building our financial stability. We do that by making a list of reason’s preventing us from following a budget and line that up with reasons why we would benefit. Mark Twain described this situation to a “T” when he said, “It’s easier to stay out than get out.”(1) Now we create consistency by developing a systemized plan that will become habit. A good one! A new system requires a budget maintained at least weekly. A method for receipt, bill, and income sorting and entering. (perhaps a colored paperclip or envelope for each day of the week and others for planned payment dates) We also need a list and possible receipts for all assets. If we stick to the system for a month, balancing and allocating income it will provide us solid foundation for the rest of our principles.

Transition: Soon that extra money will present itself and we will have to find a place for it in our next principle.

The next building block is what I call save, save, save safely.
We must establish an emergency fund of $1000 this is a good way to train us to save.Once we have the emergency fund try saving up for other major purchases.
Paying cash or reducing the principal on a loan will keep us from accumulating high interest debts. One way we can get our savings to start working for us is to contact our bank or financial advisor and look into savings plans. Such as savings accounts, CDs, money market accounts, and IRAs are usually low risk ventures that offer some return on our investment. Some of these are short term and can help us make a little more towards that item you are saving to purchase.

Transition: Figuring out how to invest and what to purchase is valuable principle and happens to be the next one.

Let us look at how to assess before we invest. When investing it is necessary to assess risk and rate of return on our investment. Let’s look at two tangible items a Car and a House.
Does it have a resale value that is more than its purchase value. Will we get full enjoyment over the lifetime of the item. Credit Score, total assets and debt to income percentage are three major factors in acquiring a loan. 675+ is a good score. Total assets are savings plus investments. Debt to income is total monthly debt payments divided by total monthly income. Market investing is a fairly complex field, but it can be simplified by finding a bank or personal financial advisor we trust. They will tell you to diversify. As the saying goes “Never put all your eggs in one basket.” I highlighted earlier some savings plans to research.
Investing in the stock market itself should be done with EXTREME caution and calculation. Seek professional assistance and research extensively. This is not a scare tactic, but a deterrent to the “get rich quick” thought process.

Transition: Now that we are at a point where we feel comfortable with our financial foundation, there is one last principle that needs addressing.

In my opinion this is the greatest principle of them all and can be done at any stage as long as you are not affecting your processes. Simply put, help others to help others. There is a Chinese Proverb, “Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.”
We can give to charities, volunteer our time, and perform a multitude of civic duties. but
I want to go a step further and apply the “teaching a man to fish” portion of the proverb.
We can start with friends and then extend to work-shops set-up at schools, work, or community centers and by taking the tools from this speech, our own testimony, and other research we have accumulated along with newly acquired skills from speech 130 we should be able to provide plenty of people with the assistance they need.
Let’s not limit this to just financial assistance. Pass on skills to others that may need assistance in their lives. This will not only give someone the ability to pass along that skill, but will reinforce your own abilities.

Transition: These are keys to developing a fulfilling life and an appreciation for what we have. By following this principle along with the other four we will start to see a drastic improvement in our financial situation.

So let’s add this all up! By setting up a budget we have a physical reminder to not spend more than we make. In creating consistency we have eliminated excuses and set a system in place that will become a habit. We learned how to save, save, save safely by setting an emergency fund of $1000, saving for those purchases and contacting a professional for information on savings plans. Assessing before investing was the key to evaluating your purchases, knowing your purchasing ability, and understanding that the stock market is a volatile investment that requires professional instruction and intensive research. And finally helping others to help others is the most important step to fulfilling your life and others. I’m going to pass out some information when I’m through, but I want you to ponder something…. I’ve started my process all ready…. how about joining me and building your foundation on something [stomp, stomp] more financially stable.

EdGate.com, Inc. Title Practical money skills for life [electronic resource] / [selected by Web Feet]. Pub Info EdGate.com, Inc., [2001]- http://fish.lcc.edu/search?/Ypersonal+budget&SORT=D&searchscope=2/Ypersonal+budget&SORT=D&searchscope=2&SUBKEY=personal%20budget/51,68,68,B/l856~b1273955&FF=Ypersonal+budget&SORT=D&searchscope=2&62,62,,1,0

Mark Twain [Samuel Langhorne Clemens] (1835-1910), U.S. author. Following the Equator, ch. 18 (1897).

Dave Mahorney

Econ 213

Bob Hess

Which Came First, The Chicken or the Egg?

From the golden spike that connected railways sea to shining sea; to Morse’s code that dashed between poles dotting the fruited plains; to digital signals transmitted via satellite over purple mountains and through fiber lines crisscrossing beneath amber waves of grain; capitalism has given America opportunity and growth as limitless as its spacious skies. The vast economic growth we, as Americans, have experienced is unrivaled throughout civilization. There have been many discoveries, entrepreneurs, politicians and social movements that have been the driving force behind our progress. This system has allowed for competition and economies of scale to keep prices in check. As America spread its wings and stretched across the continent, it became evident certain systems of communication and transportation were necessary in connecting the nation to ensure everyone received those benefits that capitalism provided. We would soon come to realize that the scale and capacity of creating these systems of critical infrastructure were enormous endeavors. However, that would not deter the entrepreneurs’ foresight of the inevitable rewards gained from their inception and they discovered method for accomplishing their lofty goals. They found that the symbiotic relationship of economies of scale and critical infrastructure is a mutualistic coexistence that is self replicating. Thus, the risks of creating systems of this magnitude were lessened and the rewards were exponential. To fully understand the synergy that economies of scale and critical infrastructure create, it is necessary to define them and their bond, identify instances past and present of their existence and reveal the results of their achievements.

A company can achieved economies of scale if they have experienced several criteria that lend to their growth. Reem Heakal’s article in Investopedia, a Forbes Media website, defines economies of scale as attained when more units of a good or a service can be produced on a larger scale, yet with (on average) less input costs.  Also noted is Adam Smith’s view that the division of labor and specialization are two key means to achieving a larger return on production. Division of labor is a phrase describing mass production or the division of producing a unit into many separate jobs. Specialization happens when individuals working their specific division of labor develop techniques that improve their performance and skills thus saving time and money. These combined with lower input costs (buying in bulk taking advantage of volume discounts), lowering costly inputs (spreading the cost of R&D, advertising, experienced managers, and skilled workers over the resulted increase in production), specialized inputs (specialized labor and/or machinery aiding in increased production, efficiency, and/or decreased depreciation of machinery), techniques and organizational inputs (organizing resource allocation, product distribution, and a clear-cut chain of command) and learning inputs (with time the entire process is refined to efficiency due to repetition and improved forecasting). Companies that improve in one or more of these areas and accommodate for the resulting growth reach a point of economies of scale.

With growth comes a need to expand and if expansion is anticipated then systems can be put in place to facilitate that growth more efficiently; as was the case in the early industrial United States. Critical infrastructure was a necessary format for connecting markets to one another and/or facilitating mass production. This critical infrastructure is nothing more than a means to communicate, commute or create vast amounts of information, people or product. Outlined in the Homeland Security Act of 2002 are the following examples: Information technology, Telecommunications, Chemicals, Transportation, Emergency services, Postal and shipping services, Agriculture and food, Public health and healthcare, Drinking water/water treatment, Energy, Banking and finance, National monuments and icons, Defense industrial base, Key industry/technology sites and  Large gathering sites. Some examples are more symbolic or community structures that evoke critical status due to their emotional attachment or attraction of human density. However, the majority are examples of immense networks and/or institutions of mass production.

Knowing the definition of economies of scale and examples of critical infrastructure illuminates the interdependence that bonds them. In order to create vast networks or industries of magnitude it is necessary for a company to achieve economies of scale in order for the cost-benefit to be worth its creation. Accordingly, economies of scale can be achieved through the utilization of the critical infrastructures as the cost-benefit favors increased returns. Thus the infinite quandary, which came first, the chicken or the egg? If only classic theory was more prevalent than Keynesian in this instance. However, sticky prices and human inefficiency historically lend toward the creation of critical infrastructure than of economies of scale as the predecessor.

History does provide evidence of the symbiotic nature between economies of scale and critical infrastructure. Railroads were one example that utilized the relationship to grow exponentially. Between 1830 and 1850 the amount of rail mileage was 8,879 and in the next decade that total jumped to 30,000 miles. Eight years after the Civil War track mileage double and then doubled again in the next 14 years. This was in part due to the consolidation of smaller railroad companies into larger ones. Local and Federal government subsidies provided a large amount of financing through land grants for further development. Also with the consolidation and bankruptcy of smaller railroads, larger railroads had less competition for financial backing from private investors as they sold their stocks and debt backed bonds. This ultimately became the liquidity that funded the railroad development. The successful rise in the East of several railways encouraged the development of transcontinental rails. There were 70 companies that benefited from the 175 million acres Congress granted railroads as subsidy. Four companies received 70 percent of this grant including Northern Pacific, Santa Fe, Southern Pacific, and Pacific Union. The first of these to be completed was Union Pacific-Central Pacific collaboration that stretched from Omaha, Nebraska to Sacramento, California. Railroad companies reached economies of scale with improvements and standardization to steam engines, rails and management. Input prices fell as corporations providing railroads with materials attained economies of scale through transportation of goods, division of labor and specialization within their own industries. The use of railways also dramatically rose from 1866 to 1897 thus allowing the railroads to pass along savings economies of scale had helped them attain. While the railroad industry was wrought with scandal, excess and overcapitalization, it would soon weed out the inferior systems and replace them with efficient conglomerations. Managing these conglomerations and the scheduling behind the massive railroads would become much more efficient with the adaptation of another technology that had simultaneously grown alongside the railroads.

That technology was the telegraph and it too would become a critical infrastructure with a handful of companies achieving economies of scale while laying its foundation. The telegraph started its humble beginnings in the lab of Samuel Morse and Alfred Vail. The early years of the telegraph started off much the same as the railroad and about a decade after. Many companies leased Morse’s license and some created technologies that were incompatible with one another. By 1851 there were 50 different companies and 23,000 miles of telegraph lines. Then came the rate wars, prices fell companies went bankrupt and mergers began. Western Union was one of the three companies that survived to their well organized and highly skilled management. They had the profit to sustain and absorb their competition. Western Union then turned to even greater expansion by acquiring government subsidies to create a transcontinental line. They also cut input cost and increase their customer base by striking a deal with railroads. This deal allowed railroads use of their system for schedule management in exchange for right of ways for their system and teaching railroad workers how to maintain and operate their equipment. Thus Western Union experienced tremendous economies of scale and as a result the cost of transmissions fell. The great synergy of two critical infrastructures and their leading corporations operating on economies of scale set the United States on course to becoming the leader in the industrial revolution.

Skipping ahead, we see a more current manifestation of the same synergy of critical infrastructure and economies of scale. The internet began with DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Project Agency) spearheading the linking of networks with several research institutions and universities. It grew even more when a physicist at CERN (the European Organization for Nuclear Research) wrote a program making it possible for personal computers to access this internet. In 1994 Netscape created the first browser providing user friendly access to it and Sun Microsystems came out the next year with, Java, a language that would access the operating system. As a result, personal computers were in high demand. This demand spurned a preemptive demand for broadband internet. One of the companies that rose to meet demand was Quest. Its founder was the owner of Southern Pacific Railroad Philip Anschutz. His company began to lay fiber optic cable along their tracks and when Southern Pacific merged with Union Pacific he laid his cable along with MCI’s cable, a company that he had contracted with. He drove down his input cost by utilizing not only his own right-of-way but also financing from MCI to do exactly what he was doing. In achieving economies of scale he was able to then acquire other internet service providers (ISPs) and other telecomm companies. Many other companies attempted to lay miles of fiber lines in hope of capitalizing on a market of high demand and leasing to other ISPs. However, with the bursting of the tech bubble most have gone bankrupt and history’s cycle repeats. The companies that weathered this downturn own many miles of “dark fiber” and the prices are going down. There economies of scale have allowed them to diversify and remain competitive until their digital real estate becomes valuable again.

These industries have not only created infrastructure and corporations with economies of scale within themselves, but they have also generated a ripple affect that transcends to other industries. US Steel was a great benefactor of the railroads that not only provided a reliable customer, but also cut input cost through transportation. This provided such an economy of scale that they began to purchase railroads and integrate a vertical market. Standard Oil experienced the same economies of scale and actually had the railroads paying them to transport their goods. Sears-Roebuck became a retail giant through cheap transportation of its catalog goods. Another benefit to corporations was the managerial approach it took to operating these large corporations. Many companies took that blueprint and utilized it in their own corporations with great success. Daylight savings was a direct result of railroad scheduling becoming standardized. The telegraph was an immediate success for Wall Street. Communication aided in the stabilizing of prices in multiple markets. Newspaper subscriptions increased due to the increase in coverage and speed of news. That communication also helped the government in the Civil War and WWI to allocate efficiently the amount of troops, rations, and munitions. The telegraph, as we learned was detrimental to the railroad industry in scheduling trains, communicating loads, and transmitting emergency information. These greatly increase efficiency and specialization thus creating economies of scale due to the telegraph. The internet and its broadband capabilities have started to have the same affect as the telegraph did. Instantaneous information greatly assists the financial markets as well as many other industries. Coordinating production and transportation provides economies of scales throughout all industries. “Real Time” mass production is a reality and inventories are becoming a thing of the past. Global markets have emerged creating specialization in other countries that have a competitive advantage thus driving down prices worldwide. The effect of this synergy ripples throughout more industries than I have described and probably can imagine.

In summation, the results of economies of scale and critical infrastructure lend to replication throughout all industries. It is their symbiotic relationship that perpetuates the continued growth throughout the world. We, in America, have experienced it before and I have no doubt we will continue to experience it despite the gloomy economic outlook we currently face. “We have nothing to fear, but fear itself…”

Work Cited

Bryant Jr., Keith L., Dethloff, Henry C., “A History of American Business”, 1990, Prentice Hall: Upper Saddle, NJ, pgs. 112- 133

Ratner, Sydney, Soltow, James H., Sylla, Richard, “The Evolution of the American Economy” 1979, Basic Books, Inc.: New York, pgs. 124-128, 234

Seavoy, Ronald E., “An Economic History of the United States From 1607 to the Present”, 2006, Routledge: New York London, pgs. 161-166,188-194

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_fiber

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qwest

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/03/012703.asp

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/homesec/RL33206.pdf

david mahorney
HUMS 213
O. Mavromatis
31 October, 2007
What did the Crusades Accomplish?
Some view the Crusades as wars of bloodlust, greed and power. War is an escalated conflict of interest usually over money and/or resources. The outcome of war is that one culture advances due to newly acquired resources or advancements made from the war. The Crusades, in principle, were originated to assist Constantinople with onslaught of Seljuk Turks and free the Holy City of Jerusalem from the clutches of Muslim control. These events would create the most dramatic geopolitical upheaval until the discovery of the New World. Europe at this time was in a political rut called Feudalism. The Islamic world was experiencing the height of their Golden Age through the conquering of other civilizations and scientific methods developed on their own. However, both worlds were becoming complacent and there were instances of in-fighting as a result. Without war, civilizations become stagnant and advancements dwindle as the ruling powers become to comfortable. The Crusades provided the stimulus that civilization needed to advance. The results were stimulations to the fundamentals of society.
The first successful stimulus was the result of crusader’s liberating old sea and land trade routes. Trade during the Middle Ages was centralized in the Mediterranean, Black and Red Seas (4). These were crucial maritime trade routes linking the East and West. The crusaders initially were able to maintain Western control of Constantinople, a crucial link between the Mediterranean and Black Seas, and much of modern day Israel, a link between the Mediterranean and Red Sea. The First Crusade was the most successful in taking control of the Holy Land. This established a trade route between the Mediterranean and the Red Sea. The crusaders were only able to hold Jerusalem for a short period of time; however continuous crusades to the area drove capital and trade through these regions keeping them open to the West for that time.
Land routes crucial to Europe’s economic boom were also established by crusaders. Roads that had been neglected since the Roman Empire were being rebuilt and utilized to transport crusaders. Trade soon followed in the footsteps of these crusaders. The lords that owned the roads through their lands realized they could not impose tolls on the crusaders they sided with. The roads were also much safer during this period due to the alliance of lords for the good of the Crusades and the monetary gains being made from trade.
Consequently, once land and water routes became safer to traverse, goods from the East poured into Europe. These goods made their way into the European loop of fairs that had sprung up. Europeans were tantalized with exotic fruits, spices and silk. Their taste for Middle Eastern and Far Eastern products drove the demand to maintain the trade routes (9). “The Crusades brought about results of which the popes had never dreamed, and which were perhaps the most, important of all. They re-established traffic between the East and West, which, after having been suspended for several centuries, was then resumed with even greater energy; they were the means of bringing from the depths of their respective provinces and introducing into the most civilized Asiatic countries Western knights, to whom a new world was thus revealed, and who returned to their native land filled with novel ideas.”( 8) So, Eastern and Western trade introduced through these newly opened routes stimulated the concept of interdependence between their cultures.
The next stimulation to civilization’s advancement came through the transferring of technologies due to crusaders opening trade routes to the East. Several inventions that originated in China and the Middle East found their way to the West during this period. One was the spinning wheel which revolutionized Flemish wool weaving. This wool was highly regarded as a valuable commodity by both Western and Easterners and was considered “smooth as silk” (1). Now with the help of an Eastern invention, the Flemish were able to increase production and provide wool to a global economy.
New paper making techniques were a closely held secret by the Chinese until they were defeated in the Battle of Talas. From there it spread throughout the Muslim world. When crusaders arrived in Damascus manufacturing was halted due to the war. However the Europeans would be introduced to the technology through copies of many significant ancient and scientific texts translated to Arabic and then to Latin. “Some historians speculate that paper was a key element in cultural advancement.” (7)
Paper was critical in another Eastern technology capitalized upon by the West known as cheques. Originating in China and moving west through the Middle East, this concept of financially backed paper was taken to new standards by crusaders such as the Knights Templar. They came to realize the expense of pilgrimage and crusades. The Knights Templar created a credit and banking system to help individuals who were unable to carry vast sums of money. In time, they became very wealthy and continued to make investments in Europe’s infrastructure.
These were just some of the many technologies that found their way to the West as a result of crusaders opening trading routes and continued contact with the East. Muslim scholars had made significant advances in science, mathematics, medicine, astronomy, engineering, and many other fields during their Golden Age (5). Hence, the Crusades proved to be a pivotal role in creating access to these technologies as well as opening routes for the interaction of Eastern and Western scholars. Thus, civil advancement was continued due to the availability of new ideas and concepts and other cultures’ abilities to expound them.
One final result of the Crusades was a social and political change that occurred in the West which led to a civil awakening. Feudalism was the primary form of government in the West. It was a government of protection, not of civic growth. Feudalism began to deteriorate with each Crusade. Nobles and lords were united in the quest by relinquishing their fights with one another and joining the Crusades. The actions of these men led to a void back at the manors and castles. Cities and towns became magnets to those who had a trade and those who wanted to trade. Europe had experienced food surpluses due to progresses made in agriculture (2). This had provided farmers with a surplus they would take to the marketplace. With the roads safer due to the lack of fighting, noblemen gone, and income opportunity in towns and cities, the remaining serfs decided to escape from their feudalistic living conditions. There followed a rise in the middle class consisting of merchants and artisans. Coupled with the increase in innovations and trade from the East, the transfer of power and money went from the noblemen to the cities. This would eventually lead to the fall of Feudalism as cities and kings would unite. This resulted in the usurping the nobles’ power and formation of monarchies as a more centralized form of government (3), thereby adding another significant civil advancement attributed to the Crusades.
In closing, the atrocities of war are and have always been a gruesome reality. The Crusades were, in war atrocities, no different than those prior to and until now. They were, however, a pivotal point in the advancement of civilization due to the stimulation of trade and technology between Eastern and Western cultures, the stimulation to city markets, and to the eventual demise of Feudalism. Without the Crusades, one can only speculate as to when civilization would have experienced the Italian Renaissance or the Age of Exploration and discovery of the New World.

Work Cited
(1) Butler, Chris. “FC63: The agricultural revolution in medieval Europe ” Chart. 2007. 17 Nov. 2007 .
(2) Butler, Chris. “FC63: The agricultural revolution in medieval Europe ” Chart. 2007. 17 Nov. 2007 .
(3) Butler, Chris. “FC68: Rise of the French monarchy (c.1000-1300) .” Chart. 2007. 17 Nov. 2007 .
(4) Crusades in The New Catholic Encyclopedia, New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1966, Vol. IV, p. 508
(5) “Fields.” Islamic Science. Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. 15 Nov. 2007. .
(6) Lewis, Archibald (January 1988). Nomads and Crusaders: AD 1000-1368.. Indiana University Press.
(7) “Papermaking Arrives in the Middle East.” Paper. Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. 15 Nov. 2007
_in_China>.
( 8) “Rise.” Knights Templar. Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. 15 Nov. 2007. .
(9) “The Middle Ages.” International World History Project. 1992. 15 Nov. 2007 .

Article #2

Retail Sales Suggest Economy
May Be Stronger Than Expected
Wholesale Prices Surge on Energy
By JEFF BATER and BRIAN BLACKSTONE
December 13, 2007 10:51 a.m.
WASHINGTON — U.S. retail sales surged during November, making a surprisingly strong, broad-based climb that suggests the economy might not be as weak as feared. Meanwhile, U.S.wholesale prices soared last month at their fastest pace since the Nixon Administration, spurred by record gains in energy prices. In a worrisome sign for Federal Reserve officials, price pressures appeared to seep beyond just energy and risk becoming embedded deeper in the production pipeline. Retail sales increased by 1.2%, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Sales went up an unrevised 0.2% in October. The median estimate of 10 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires was a 0.6% advance in November. Analysts have been expecting consumer spending — and the economy as a whole — to slow sharply in the final months of 2007 compared to the third quarter because of falling home prices and rising energy costs.The retail sales report illustrates where Americans are spending their money. Consumer spending is a big part of the economy. It makes up about 70% of gross domestic product, which is the scoreboard for the economy. The Commerce report showed automobile and parts sales decreased by 1.0% in November. October sales fell 0.6%. Sales of all other retailers excluding auto and parts dealers surged in November by 1.8%; economists expected a 0.7% increase. The 1.8% gain was the largest since 2.9% in January 2006. Ex-auto sales in October had gone 0.4% higher, revised from a previously estimated 0.2% increase. November gasoline-station sales increased by 6.8%, likely boosted by higher prices at the pump. The gain was the biggest since 7.1% in September 2005. Gas sales rose 3.1% in October. Stripping away sales at gas stations, demand at all other retailers increased 0.6% in November. Excluding gas and auto sectors, demand at other retailers last month increased by a robust 1.1%. Sales climbed by 2.5% at electronic stores; 0.6% at health and personal care stores, 1.0% at food and beverage stores; 1.2% at building material and garden supplies dealers; 2.6% at clothing stores; 0.3% at eating and drinking places; 1.9% at mail order and Internet retailers; 1.0% at furniture store sales; 2.2% at sporting goods, hobby and book stores; and 0.9% at general merchandise stores. Wholesale Price Surge The producer price index for finished goods jumped 3.2% in November, the Labor Department said Thursday, the biggest one-month rise since August 1973.The core PPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.4%, matching the biggest increase in one year. The figures doubled Wall Street expectations of a 1.7% rise in the headline index and 0.2% rise in the core, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey. In the 12 months through November, wholesale prices rose 7.2%, the largest increase since November 1981. The core PPI was up 2% from a year ago. Though the consumer price index, due for release Friday, will give a broader view of the inflation landscape, the PPI data nonetheless serve as a warning that the recent disinflation trend may have come to an end at a time when the economy is softening. That, in turn, would make it tougher for the Fed to lower interest rates further to limit the economic fallout from the housing and credit crunch. The Fed on Tuesday lowered the federal funds rate for a third-straight meeting, by 25 basis points to 4.25%, but in an accompanying statement warned that some inflation risks remain. On Wednesday, it announced — with other major central banks — a series of measures aimed at boosting liquidity in credit markets. Thursday’s PPI release showed producer prices for energy swelled a record 14.1% last month versus October. Wholesale gasoline prices increased 34.8%, also a record. Food prices, in contrast, were unchanged on the month .Wholesale prices of passenger cars rose 0.6% last month, while those of light trucks jumped 2.3%, the biggest increase in one year. Computer prices provided one of the few offsets, falling 2.4% on the month. Deeper in the production pipeline, inflationary pressures accelerated. Prices of raw materials, known as crude goods, rose 8.7%, though excluding food and energy they fell 0.5%. Intermediate goods prices rose 3.7% overall and were up 1% excluding food and energy. Business Inventories Slow U.S. business inventories slowed to a crawl in October, suggesting companies might have cut back on stockpiling and created a restraint on the economy in the final months of 2007. Inventories increased by 0.1% to a seasonally adjusted $1.431 trillion, after rising in September an unrevised 0.4%, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Wall Street was looking for stockpiles to move 0.3% higher during October. The smaller-than-expected increase indicated businesses were reducing their building of inventories for fear of lower demand in the future. Because inventories are a component of gross domestic product, which is a measure of the economy, reduced stockpiling would translate to a drag on the economy in the fourth quarter. Demand in October, however, was solid, the data Thursday showed, with business sales increasing by 0.7% to $1.135 trillion. Sales also rose 0.7% in September; originally, September sales were seen up 0.6%. The inventory-to-sales ratio slipped to 1.26 in October from 1.27 in September, Commerce said. The gauge indicates how well firms are matching supply with demand. It measures how long in months a firm could sell all current inventories. Year over year, inventories grew by 3.2% since October 2006; sales climbed 6.9%. October manufacturing sector stockpiles of goods increased 0.1% after rising 0.6% in September. U.S. wholesalers’ inventories were unchanged after increasing 0.6% in September. Retailers’ stocks of goods increased by 0.4% after rising 0.1% in September. Auto dealer inventories decreased 0.4% after falling 0.2% in September. Excluding the auto component, other retail stocks climbed 0.7% in October after rising 0.2% in September. Inventories rose by 0.5% at food and beverage stores; 2.1% at furniture outlets; 0.4% at general merchandise stores; and 1.1% at building materials, garden equipment and supplies stores. Inventories fell by 0.1% at clothing stores. Jobless Claims Decline The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell slightly last week, remaining at levels consistent with modest increases in monthly payrolls. Initial claims for jobless benefits fell by 7,000 to 333,000 after seasonal adjustments in the week ended Dec. 8, the Labor Department said Thursday. Wall Street economists had expected no change from the previous week. There were no special factors, a Labor Department analyst said. The four-week average of new claims, which economists use to smooth out weekly volatility, fell by 2,000 to 338,750. The previous four-week average was the highest since October 2005, so the underlying trend still signals some softening in labor markets. Claims for the week ending Dec. 1 were revised up by 2,000 to 340,000.Last week, the Labor Department said hiring among nonfarm businesses grew 94,000 in November, leaving the jobless rate at an historically low 4.7%. The latest jobless claims data suggest similar modest gains in December, which should support consumer spending and ease concerns of a steep economic downturn or outright recession. According to the Labor Department report Thursday, the number of workers drawing unemployment benefits for more than one week rose 38,000 to 2,639,000 in the week ended Dec. 1. But the four-week average of those continuing claims rose a seventh-straight week to its highest level since January 2006, suggesting it is taking longer for unemployed people to find work. The unemployment rate for workers with unemployment insurance held steady at 2% in the Dec. 1 week. On an unadjusted basis, California reported the biggest increase in new claims the week of Dec. 1, 16,867, due to layoffs in the service industry. California didn’t provide specifics about any effect of the writers’ strike on claims. Wisconsin reported the sharpest decrease, 6,390, due to fewer layoffs in construction, service and manufacturing companies.
My surmise:
In conjunction with my previous article with respect to the Fed’s expansionary monetary policy may show why macroeconomic models are so hard to simplify. The Fed did lower the target rate a ¼ point, but only cut the discount window by the same. Wall Street proceeded in typical knee-jerk fashion and sold like crazy because most did not agree with the policy. The Fed then countered with a fairly unprecedented policy that included several other foreign banks injecting reserves into the system much do the delight of the banking system. However, this article shows why the Fed may have been so tentative to relinquish their grip on the discount window rate. As described, the retail sector saw enormous growth due to holiday spending. This shows that the consumer is still spending and goes along with the increase to C. Unfortunately there are other factors plaguing this expansionary policy. The PPI rose by leaps and bounds due to a dramatic increase in energy prices. Even the core PPI which excludes price changes in energy and food saw an increase matching the year’s high. Businesses haven’t help out much. They saw an increase in orders, but most did little to affect their inventories thus contributing to future price increases. Granted, there was an expected slow down in D, but now that there isn’t, the lack of inventories will add to pricing. However, if businesses increase their production and restock inventories to surpass demand we may see the expansion we need. Labor markets are softening so they had better react quickly. This would lead to an increase in Ip and help stabilize the expansion. Unfortunately for “Big Ben” this news on inflation comes at a bad time. He is limited to cutting the interest rate due to the increase in inflation. So the banking system will have to rely on this round of cuts and injected liquidity to deal with their credit issues before years end. We will see!!

Dave Mahorney
Sandy Lenchner
Econ 202
December 1, 2007

Wall Street Journal Articles
Article #1
Lookahead: Gimme Gimme Gimme
By ROB CURRAN, DANIELLE LEGRAND and DEBORAH LYNN BLUMBERG
December 8, 2007 2:16 p.m.
Like a spoiled child awaiting holiday gifts, the stock market is stamping its proverbial foot and saying: “I want a rate cut, or else.”The combination of slowing jobs growth, somewhat weakened retail sales, and continued credit and housing market distress, has investors clamoring for more assistance from the Federal Reserve.And — after this week’s rally and September’s indulgent 50-basis point move — the market may even turn its nose up at a 25-basis point cut Tuesday when Fed policy makers meet.The Fed has lowered its target rate now by 75 basis points since September to 4.50%. Hopes for a very aggressive ease next week were reduced Friday following a modest gain in the November employment report.But some are still sticking to their call for a 50-basis-point ease to help markets weather the storm set off by subprime mortgage bets gone bad.Such a move would be “more proactive,” said John Miller, managing director at Nuveen Investments in Chicago, putting “the Fed ahead of the curve.” Despite the fact that the jobs market looks OK, the stress that bank balance sheets are under, and the concerns in the banking industry continue to grow,” he said. A 50-basis-point cut would be targeted toward the banking, lending and mortgage finance sectors and have little to do with job growth specifically, he noted.Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak & Co., pointed to the climbing rate on 30-day asset-backed commercial paper as a top reason to expect a more aggressive move from the Fed. The rate on 30-day ABCP is now 157 basis points over fed funds, much higher than the 110-basis-point spread seen in August, in the first round of money market troubles.The Fed “has been unusually quiet amid these worsening conditions and the well-advertised problem related to year-end funding pressures,” Mr. Crescenzi said, leading him to believe a bigger cut may be in the cards. Such a hefty ease, however, would also likely take its toll on longer-term Treasury securities, pushing their yields higher, as fears about inflation pressures would almost surely intensify. Inflation worries were already evident on Friday, as losses in longer-term Treasuries picked up speed.Investors next week will also be eager to see what change, if any, the Fed makes to its discount rate, its primary emergency lending tool, where banks can borrow money directly from the central bank.Speculation is growing among market participants about a possible aggressive cut and a narrowing — or even an elimination — of the gap between that rate and the fed funds target rate. Such a move would encourage more banks to tap the discount window, helping to ease the liquidity problems taking their toll on markets. A large discount-rate cut would also likely placate any policy-makers who are more focused on inflation pressures and who aren’t totally sold on another cut in the fed funds rate. My surmise:
The Fed is predicted to lower the Fed target rate a quarter to half point and the discount-rate is predicted to be cut a half point. The fed fund target rate is the interest rate for inter-bank loans. Usually when this is lowered there is an immediate increase in bank to bank lending of excess reserves. This is followed by a spike in interest rates between banks as the demand for excess reserves increases. However with a drop in the discount-rate there may prove to be a way around the initial inflationary pressure. The discount-rate is applied to reserves borrowed directly from the federal bank. The rates would be 4.25% Fed Target and 4.5% discount, thus providing banks with incentive to borrow from them. There is a stigma of desperation with borrowing from fed, but with rates this low it only makes sense. Thus, the Fed will provide banks with the liquidity that is desperately needed as a result of losses in subprime paper. This relates to the class in our recent discussion on the Fed’s distribution of excess reserves. It details two different forms for injecting reserves into the banking system. Bank to Bank lending through the target rate and Fed direct to Bank through the discount window are both means of acquiring excess reserves. Bank to bank loans would be in competition with discount window loans, thus keeping the overnight rates fairly close to the target rate. Both forms will increase the monetary base by increasing excess reserves. The question is will the banking system utilize that money for loans, thus increasing the money supply (M1), or will they hold on to it for liquidity reasons. The other factor in this is businesses and consumers. Right now credit is cheap and essentially this would spurn an economic expansion (increase in M1 > money stock has decreased thus increasing C and Ip due to weak dollar and increased exports > increase in AD > increase in AS > increase in equilibrium GDP). This would be the perfect scenario right? So is the classical economic theory. However, with the wounds of the subprime market still fresh, banks have increasingly tightened credit criteria and it will be up to A-paper borrowers, credit worthy businesses and the rich to increase consumption. Good luck!! We all know the real consumers are lower to middle class income earners. Most of who are struggling to keep above the ever rising debt load. Some of which was acquired by shady lending practices that started out this subprime nightmare. There needs to be an enlightening of the masses towards debt and income management and a demand for a sense of urgency towards savings. It would be nice to see a government policy or corporate sponsored “matching” program that would assist the low to average income family of 10-60K/yr. households. Perhaps a “50/50″ savings cards issued by Visa, MasterCard, AE or any credit-card company would work. This could provide an average of 5 % annual return on savings vesting 25% per 7 years for 100% vesting in 30 years (2 years of no contributions). Credit companies would match savings thus doubling their liquidity to which they could utilize on transactions to increase revenue. The interest paid to the consumer could be written off in taxes (5%/yr.).This would be contingent on completion of a money management class and monthly debt counseling. I need to stop this rant right here and climb off my soap box. Now back to the Fed and their ideal reaction to a rate cut. First the initial cut to rates incurs through the creation of excess reserves by purchasing of government backed securities. They flood the open market with these reserves to the point that the Fed fund rate drops. This eventually leaks into longer term interest rates thus creating an opportunity cost of holding or acquiring liquidity vs. interest based investments. This is represented in the money stock and supply graph as a shift in the money supply due to banks and the public taking advantage of this opportunity cost, thus increasing M1. Next we see an increase in loans as a result of demand for liquidity and the low interest rates. This leads to an increase in PAE as C and Ip increase. Also exports rise as the dollar decreases in value and foreign currency has increased its purchasing power. These factors cause a positive shift in AD soon followed by an increase in AS, thus increasing GDP. This would be the ideal result of the Fed’s expansionary monetary policy. There is an increase in GDP and no inflationary pressure on prices. If only things worked as easy as they do in Macroecomics ECON 202.

Dave Mahorney
WRIT 122
Manning
5 October 2006

Middle Classless

The disappearing middle class has been a subject of intense debate over the last decade. Many speculations have been made about the cause. Arguments range from outsourcing to unfair tax breaks. The arguments being presented, however, do not address the major issue facing the middle class. Perpetual education is the cornerstone of success and too few people have grasped that concept. The waning of the middle class is the effect of an incomplete or lack of college education.
The lack of education in manufacturing workers has led to an increase in layoffs and outsourcing. By itself, US manufacturing would be the eighth-largest economy in the world. Manufacturing employs more than 14 million people in the US. Those jobs are a valuable asset to this country’s economy. A manufacturing position was a middle class job, but the job and education requirements have changed. In the 1950s up to the mid-1970s a manufacturing job was the highest paying job a high school graduate could get. The jobs in manufacturing at that time required less skill and little education. Since these jobs did not require much education, there were few who went on from high school to attain a college degree. Recently manufacturers have outsourced a majority of these jobs. There is no documentation of a specific number of jobs lost, but one can see the outcome by looking at the big picture. The largest increase in the outsourcing share among private industries was in durable goods manufacturing. That share rose from 31 percent in 1997 to 37 percent in 2004 (Yuskavage et.all pg.26). In 2004 the amount of durable goods sold was almost $251.9 billion (US Census Bureau). Thirty-seven percent of that is $93.2 billion in durable goods that were produced in another country. That equates to a large percentage of jobs lost just in the manufacturing sector. The jobs lost are mainly very mechanical or repetitive motion jobs. In essence, the jobs that are lost are unskilled positions. This means there are unskilled-unemployed workers without an education to fall back on. Nearly 36 percent of the 3,000 companies recently polled by the National Association of Manufacturers have good jobs going unfilled due to a lack of qualified applicants (Jasinowski). There is work at a middle class level of pay, but it requires more education. Unemployed-workers who do not improve their education will search for jobs with comparable wages. Since there are few jobs left, they will settle for something a step down on the economic scale. This slow sifting of the unskilled worker from middle class paying jobs has resulted in a dynamic downsizing of the middle class to the lower middle class or even the lower class.
The United States middle class will not be able to compete for jobs with other countries due to the inadequate level of education. The demand workers with Science and Engineering degrees will increase by 47 percent during this decade (NSF). Last May, 65,000 students in America graduated with a college degree in engineering. In comparison, China graduated a class of 325,000 eager engineers. The US has roughly 6 percent of its student body pursuing a degree in engineering. Meanwhile, China has 37 percent of its undergrads preparing for the same degree (Jasinowski). When there is a large distribution of graduate students in a certain field, it tends to drive down the income level of that profession. In addition, the average income for an engineer is about $8,000 in China (PR Newswire Association) and in the US it is $51,888 (Bureau of Labor Statistics). Thus income disparities, along with the availability of graduates in China, create more pressure to offshore or outsource these jobs. America’s struggle to compete educationally on a global level becomes more apparent upon further review of higher learning statistics. From 1995 until 2003 the increase in enrollment of college students was 21 percent, well below the average of 38 percent. The other countries, such as Australia, the Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Korea, Mexico, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak Republic and Sweden, ranged from 33 percent to169 percent during the same period (Ischinger). In relation, is the amount of college drop outs the US has when compared to other countries. The average completion rate was 70 percent in countries abroad. The US reported one of the lowest completion percentages at 50 percent (Ischinger). Consequently, Americans cannot compete for jobs when they cannot compare educationally. This consistent level of complacency toward education standards is what will extinguish the American middle class.
Lou Dobbs contends that offshoring and outsourcing are the major factors attributed to the decreasing of the middle class. His contention is upheld by evidence of an ever increasing trade deficit and the amount of jobs lost due to outsourcing. Lou’s claim is that the impact of a trade deficit, which added to the then $4 trillion in external debt, has caused the loss of jobs and diminished the manufacturing base. His claim is that there are 400,000-500,000 jobs a year being exported to cheap overseas labor markets(Dobbs). In contrast to Mr. Dobbs, research shows that the manufacturing base is increasing. In 2006 the total new orders for durable goods was up from $1.54 trillion in 2005 to $1.67 trillion. That is an increase of 8.5 percent (US Department of Commerce). This should equate to more manufacturing jobs. In fact there are more jobs in manufacturing. However, the unskilled labor is still outsourced. The jobs available require more skill sets. The need to educate workers is evident. A poll by the NAM shows more than 80 percent of the companies that responded indicate that they are experiencing a shortage of qualified workers (Eisen et. all). Mr. Dobb’s claim that outsourcing and a trade deficit are contributing to the erosion of the middle class is valid. However, the more impending doom is attributed to the unskilled workers. Their lack of education has them fighting a losing battle as more of them slip from their spot in the middle class.
In final there is much that affects the economic status of people in the middle class. The one way to help ensure these people and their future generations a place of economic middle ground is continuous education. The world becomes more globalized with each fiscal year. Workers in the US can no longer rely on manual labor as a fundamental means of median wages. The American worker must be able to compete with the world in education or the middle class will continue to fade.

Work Cited

Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2006-07 Edition, Engineers, 20 September 2006 http://www.bls.gov/oco/ocos027.htm (7)
Dobbs , Lou . Personal Interview. 7 Feb. 2005. 25 Sep. 2006 . (9)
Eisen, Phyllis, Jerry Jasinowski, and Richard Kleinert. “2005 Skills Gap Report - A Survey of the American Manufacturing Workforce.” National Association of Manufacturers. 2005. NAM. 25 Sep. 2006 . (2)
Ischinger, Barbara. “Education at a Glance 2006.” Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development . 12 Sep. 2006. OECD/ OCDE. 25 Sep. 2006 . ( 8)
Jasinowski, Jerry . “In Search Of Skilled Manufacturing Employees.” National Association of Manufacturers. 17 May 2005. NAM. 25 Sep. 2006 . (1)
National Science Foundation , Division of Science Resources Statistics
Science and Engineering Indicators-2002
Arlington, VA (NSB 02-01) [April 2002] 13 November 2006 http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind02/c3/c3s4.htm
PR Newswire Association . “China Salary & Career Development Survey .” Global Sources. 8 Oct. 2004. PR Newswire Association LLC. 16 Sep. 2006 . (6)
US Census Bureau. “Benchmark Report for Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: January 1992 through December 2005.” U.S. Census Bureau. May 2006. U.S. Census Bureau. 25 Sep. 2006 . (5)
US Department of Commerce. “Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders August 2006.” US Census Bureau News 27 Sep. 2006: m3-1. 27 Sep. 2006 <4 http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf >. (4)
Yuskavage, Robert E., Erich H. Strassner, and Gabriel W. Medeiros. “Outsourcing and Imported Services in BEA’s Industry Accounts.” Bureau of Economic Analysis . Apr. 2006. U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis. 16 Sep. 2006 . (3)

246628
WRIT 121, Group 49
23 February 2006

Riding the Techno Cycle

Most people remember the internet bubble that began before the turn of the last millennium. That bubble soon burst just a few years after it began. Many people can recall that their investments, IRAs, or 401k took a big loss when the bubble burst. The reason for the loss was many people had money invested in small businesses as a general fund. The small businesses that the portfolio managers were investing in were new dot com businesses. The market fell as a result of these businesses not creating enough revenue. This caused the loss of a significant amount of money from the average person’s investment. It in turn created an apprehension toward investing in new technology. However, booming technology bubbles and their bursting tendencies are a cyclical trend detrimental to the United States’ economy. Technology has three stages of development. The boom is the raising of capital and lying of the material framework. The bust is what happens when the masses start to acclimate to the technology and prices to utilize the technology fall. Finally, the true impact of the technology is when other sectors of the economy grow as a result of its culturization into society. This concept is brought to light by Daniel Gross’s article in the February issue of Wired magazine. I was surprised to find someone who agreed with my views, but I feel they need some elaboration.
The initial hype of a new technology brings with it an increase in the flow of money and economic prosperity. The building of the initial framework for a new technology brings with it new job opportunities. The US funded a grant for 30,000 dollars to help build the first telegraph lines. Later in history a railroad company capitalized on 100 million dollars in funding (Gross 120). The money raised by Exodus Communications and PSInet to build fiber optics was in the range of 30 billion dollars (Gross 120). These companies raised an amazing amount of capital to develop the latest technology. The amount of jobs that were created provided money for their workers. This helps money flow through the economy.
Culturization of a new technology creates a foundation that spurs economic turn-around after the technology bubble bursts. A culturization of technology comes when the masses have adapted to utilizing the new technology. This usually happens when the price of using the technology has decreased and can be afforded by the average person. Daniel Gross describes the building of these technological foundations and their results. From 1843 to 1852 the span of telegraph lines jumped from 2,000 to 23,000 miles. The companies that created it soon went bankrupt by 1860. Price per word fell and soon long stories from the Civil War battle fronts were transmitted over these lines. This resulted in the rise of the great newspaper empires (Gross 120). The railroad was another technology doomed to bust. Northern Pacific laid approximately 500 miles of tracks before going bankrupt. Thousands of miles were laid between 1870 and 1890. It wasn’t until the 1890s that the prices for transportation fell. People started using the trains for leisure travel. Sears Roebuck was one of the corporations that utilized the rail for transportation of catalog items (Gross 120). The recent development of the internet fell susceptible to the same cycle. Since inception people have been clamoring to get a piece of this technology’s real estate. Companies like Exodus Communications and PSInet initially produced 90 million miles of fiber optic cable for broadband use (Gross 120). The framework was laid but consumers were slow to follow. A Harris Interactive Poll reveals in 1995 there were 17.5 million subscribers to the internet in the US (Taylor par. 3). Nelson Ratings show that number has increased to 143 million subscribers (Burns par. 3). It takes some time before the masses can accept a new technology. People’s leeriness or inability to include the technology in their lives is what causes the bust of the technological bubble. The initial hype creates the framework, the masses soon follow and the technology becomes culturized.
The Phoenix like rise of a technology bubble after its burst helps to develop other sectors that surround or utilize the technology. Gross gives an example of certain sectors that exploded after certain technologies were culturized. The newspaper moguls flourished after the price of telegraph transmissions fell. Whole stories were transferred through wire across the continent enabling the rise of newspaper moguls. The stock market was introduced soon after the culturization of the telegraph. People were able to get up to date company information which resulted in the buying and selling stocks over a wire. Once the price of transportation on the railroads became feasible, other industries started benefiting. Retail began to boom due to the ability to sell across the continent. The housing market began to explode because people could relocate further. Leisure travel became popular and hotels thrived off the expanding business (Gross 120). Today is no exception. The lowering of broadband prices has enticed more people to be online. Retail has again benefited from online sales. Financial groups have thrived with the instant accessibility to portfolios. Mortgage and Loan companies and the housing market have seen a tremendous boom since the internet bubble. Part of the increase is due to low interest rates but the other is due to the online presence of these companies. People can refinance or look for a new home without leaving their living room. Technology has a way of reinventing itself that will help improve many different aspects of commerce as well as our lifestyles.
In conclusion the infamous technology bubble and its bursting are nothing more than cycles. The cycles are nothing to be frightened by. The economy may fall into a slight recession after the initial boom or hype of a new technology but it will soon recover. One suggestion for people is to start utilizing the technology. Once a person understands the new technology’s benefits it is possible to profit off a new enterprise. The US economy has seen many of these cycles and has come out of each bust driving the future.
Works Cited

Burns, Enid. “Active Home Web Use by Country, December 2005.” Par. 6 Nelson Net Ratings. 27 January 2006.
Gross, Daniel. “In Praise of Bubbles.” Wired February 2006: 120
Taylor, Humphery. “Those With Internet Access Continue To Grow But At A Slower Rate.” Par. 14. Harris Interactive. 5 February 2006.

Next Page »